It’s one of the most exciting things to watch yet one of the most excruciating places to be in college basketball: the NCAA tournament bubble.
Even though Selection Sunday is more than 50 days away, there are teams already approaching desperation mode, in need of impressing the selection committee — or it could make for an uncomfortable ride in March.
It’s already time to start looking at resumes and figuring what teams need to ensure their spot in the Big Dance. Welcome to the bubble watch, where we’ll examine teams on the fence in the recent USA TODAY Sports Bracketology:
UCLA
Record: 13-6 (3-2)
NET Ranking: 40
Quad 1 record: 2-5
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four).
Quality wins: vs. Purdue
Bad losses: vs. California (neutral)
It’s been a largely disappointing season for the Bruins, unable to live up to the preseason expectations by not playing up to marquee opponents. The new year got off to a tough start with three losses in five games, pushing UCLA further away from NCAA tournament certainty. It tremendously helped its case by beating Purdue for that first signature win of the season. The schedule gets lighter now with Northwestern next, and it doesn’t leave the West Coast again until the middle of February. A winning streak is a must.
New Mexico
Record: 15-4 (6-2)
NET Ranking: 41
Quad 1 record: 1-3
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: at Virginia Commonwealth
Bad losses: at New Mexico State, at Boise State
Eric Olen’s first season in Albuquerque had a bumpy start with a 3-2 record, but the Lobos have righted the ship with a 12-2 record since. However, this current stretch doesn’t have any real significant wins, and the loss to Boise State inflicted some real damage. There was the chance against San Diego State but New Mexico couldn’t pull of the late road comeback. The next week includes Quad 2 games at Nevada and UNLV, which it can’t afford to drop.
Ohio State
Record: 13-5 (5-3)
NET Ranking: 35
Quad 1 record: 1-4
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: vs. UCLA
Bad losses: at Pittsburgh, at Washington
You never know what team you’re going to get with Ohio State, who crumbled against Washington but then looked solid against UCLA right after. While it doesn’t have any major win, the Buckeyes benefit from having a strong NET ranking, thanks to some close games against top-tier squads. The chance to really make a statement is now with trips to Michigan and Wisconsin coming up, as the loss to Pittsburgh looms large.
TCU
Record: 12-7 (2-4)
NET Ranking: 46
Quad 1 record: 2-4
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: vs. Florida (netural), vs. Wisconsin (neutral)
Bad losses: vs. New Orleans, vs. Notre Dame, at Utah
The season-opening loss to New Orleans immediately made it a tough road for TCU, and it hasn’t gotten any easier despite some real good wins against Florida and Wisconsin in November. The shocking loss to Kansas started a four-game losing streak that was punctuated with a head-scratching defeat to Utah. It’s getting harder for the Horned Frogs with Baylor and Houston next, needing at least one win to avoid tumbling.
Creighton
Record: 12-8 (6-3)
NET Ranking: 59
Quad 1 record: 1-5
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: at Villanova
Bad losses: vs. Kansas State, at Providence
Starting 5-5 with a Quad 3 loss wasn’t ideal for Creighton, but it could have been redeemed with a strong start to Big East play. Unfortunately, it hasn’t gone that way. The Bluejays haven’t taken advantage, picking up just a win against Villanova that finally got them a Quad 1 win, only for it to be wiped out with a loss to Providence. Creighton just avoided disaster by barely getting past Xavier, and it needs to get a win streak going, starting with an easy opportunity against Marquette.
Baylor
Record: 11-7 (1-5)
NET Ranking: 53
Quad 1 record: 1-6
Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: at Oklahoma State
Bad losses: at Memphis
Baylor has yet to catch up with the rest of the Big 12, finding itself in another odd position. Even though it lost to Memphis, it finished nonconference play 10-2. It’s gone bad since with a 1-5 conference start, and while they’ve all been Quad 1 games, that won’t cut it for any tournament candidate, especially a NET ranking so high. Simply put, Baylor needs to get out of the Big 12 basement, starting with TCU and Cincinnati up next.
Texas
Record: 11-8 (2-4)
NET Ranking: 43
Quad 1 record: 3-5
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: at Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt
Bad losses: vs. Arizona State (neutral), vs. Mississippi State
Sean Miller had a largely unimpressive start in Austin and it’s been an up-and-down start to the SEC schedule. Texas started 0-2 with a bad Quad 3 overtime loss to Mississippi State, but then got some marquee wins in Alabama and Vanderbilt, handing the Commodores their first loss of the season. The Longhorns have slid again with back-to-back losses, now owning an 0-3 Quad 2 and 3 record. That can be forgiven if Texas can pick up wins against Georgia and Auburn to even out the Quad 1 record.
Indiana
Record: 12-7 (3-5)
NET Ranking: 37
Quad 1 record: 0-6
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: none
Bad losses: vs. Minnesota
The lack of quality wins says it all for Indiana, with the Hoosiers still looking for a notable victory to prove it belongs in the field. They swung and missed at every opportunity in the nonconference schedule and in the early part of the Big Ten slate, currently on a four-game losing skid that included three top-10 teams. The Hoosiers need to get a Quad 1 win soon, and it will have three chances in the next four games.
