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The 2024 NFL season featured a close MVP race between two star quarterbacks in the AFC. Buffalo’s Josh Allen emerged as the winner and earned his first MVP award over Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, a two-time MVP winner.
Allen’s win came by a narrow margin; he earned 27 first-place votes to Jackson’s 22. That margin ensured that Jackson would not be the latest back-to-back NFL MVP. That means the door is open for Allen to do so in 2025.
Only five players in NFL history have won MVP awards in back-to-back seasons: Aaron Rodgers (2020-21), Peyton Manning (2008-09, 2003-04), Brett Favre (1995-97), Joe Montana (1989-90) and Jim Brown (1957-58).
Allen’s Bills kick off Week 12 action in the NFL on the road with a ‘Thursday Night Football’ matchup against the Houston Texans. Buffalo rebounded from a surprising loss to AFC East foe Miami in Week 10 with a convincing victory at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11.
Allen was spectacular in that contest as he scored all of the Bills’ six total touchdowns, three passing and three rushing. He became the first quarterback to run and throw for three scores each since he did so in Week 14 last season. He accounted for 357 of the team’s 414 total yards on offense in an impressive display.
That’s the latest exclamation point in a solid season for the Bills’ franchise quarterback. But can the 29-year-old win back-to-back MVP awards? Here’s what the odds say – and how he can do it.
NFL MVP odds
Allen is right in the mix for this year’s NFL MVP award. Two potential first-time winners have the shortest odds, according to BetMGM’s latest NFL odds, but he’s not far behind. Here’s how the top five look entering Week 12:
5. QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+2000)
Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense are enjoying a better season in 2025 than a year ago but they don’t have the wins to show for it. Mahomes looks to be a long shot for his third MVP as the Chiefs are on the outside looking in for a division title.
4. RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+750)
Indianapolis’ offense has been the surprise of the year with quarterback Daniel Jones and it’s Taylor who leads the charge. His 17 touchdowns from scrimmage (rushing and receiving combined) lead the NFL by a wide margin; Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs are next-best at 11. But it may take a herculean effort for a non-quarterback to win this award even if the Colts earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
3. QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+450)
Allen won the award last year but is playing better this season by many metrics. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Allen’s putting up better numbers this year in completion percentage (69.6% to 63.6% in 2024), yards per attempt (8.4 to 7.7), and quarterback rating (105.6 to 101.4). What may hold him back is if the Bills do not win their division. The last MVP winner to not win their division was Manning in 2008 when the Colts were the No. 5 seed and there were no clear contenders for the award.
2. QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots (+175)
Maye’s Patriots may be the main reason Allen doesn’t become the next MVP winner. New England enters Week 12 two games ahead of Buffalo in the win column (9-2 compared to 7-3) and has a win already in a head-to-head matchup. The Patriots also have one of the easiest schedules remaining in the NFL; the only significant challenges are one game against the Bills and one against the Ravens.
1. QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (+135)
Even if Allen’s Bills overtake Maye’s Patriots, Stafford remains a strong challenger for the NFL’s top individual award. He hasn’t thrown an interception in nearly two calendar months and leads the league in touchdown passes entering Week 12 with 27. Los Angeles is firmly in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and if they’re a division winner behind Stafford orchestrating one of the best passing offenses in the league, it’ll be hard to deny him the MVP.
How Josh Allen can win another MVP
There’s still plenty of hope for Allen to be the latest consecutive MVP winner. The Bills’ remaining schedule has some tough outings but they’ll play Philadelphia at home in Week 17. A road game against New England in Week 15 looms as a massive showdown between MVP contenders. A win there to finish the season 14-3 could be enough to ensure the Bills potentially win the AFC East.
Allen can continue to play as he did against Tampa Bay and stun the rest of the league. He’s one of the more terrifying quarterbacks in the NFL with what he can do as a passer and rusher. Similar counting statistics to what he did last year and a division title – plus the Rams losing some key games to Seattle or other NFC contenders – could move him into the driver’s seat for the award.
