Conference tournaments begin this week in women’s college basketball for a handful of leagues, including the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Atlantic 10 and Summit.
It’s possible a lot of these projections will change by the time USA Today Sports rolls out another bracketology next week as teams will play in high-stakes games against marquee in-conference opponents on neutral courts. Up for grabs are a few undecided spots in the top 16 and positioning on the bubble.
The biggest change in this week’s projection is North Carolina moving up to the four-line after wins at Virginia and at home against Duke. For now, the metrics like the Tar Heels a bit more than West Virginia, Kentucky or Michigan State. Hurting the Mountaineers’ chances of hosting right now are its lack of Quad 1 wins, but they’re about to have the opportunity to pick up as many as three at the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
Here’s the full 68-team projection as of Wednesday, March 4:
Fort Worth 1
Storrs, Connecticut
1 UConn
16 Howard
8 Tennessee
9 Princeton
College Park, Maryland
5 West Virginia
12 Georgia Southern
4 Maryland
13 McNeese
Louisville, Kentucky
6 Ole Miss
11 North Dakota State
3 Louisville
14 Western Illinois
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
7 Washington
10 Clemson
2 LSU
15 Charleston
Sacramento 2
Los Angeles, California
1 UCLA
16 Cal Baptist / LMU
8 Iowa State
9 Villanova
Chapel Hill, North Carolina
5 Michigan State
12 Colorado / Richmond
4 North Carolina
13 Louisiana Tech
Durham, North Carolina
6 Baylor
11 Columbia
3 Duke
14 Vermont
Nashville, Tennessee
7 USC
10 Rhode Island
2 Vanderbilt
15 Navy
Fort Worth 3
Columbia, South Carolina
1 South Carolina
16 Alabama A&M / ETSU
8 Oklahoma State
9 Illinois
Minneapolis, Minnesota
5 Texas Tech
12 San Diego State
4 Minnesota
13 UC Irvine
Fort Worth, Texas
6 Alabama
11 Virginia / Nebraska
3 TCU
14 Idaho
Ann Arbor, Michigan
7 Georgia
10 Syracuse
2 Michigan
15 FDU
Sacramento 4
Austin, Texas
1 Texas
16 High Point
8 Oregon
9 Virginia Tech
Columbus, Ohio
5 Kentucky
12 San Diego State
4 Ohio State
13 Murray State
Norman, Oklahoma
6 Notre Dame
11 Rice
3 Oklahoma
14 Green Bay
Iowa City, Iowa
7 NC State
10 Fairfield
2 Iowa
15 Eastern Kentucky
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes: Virginia Tech, Princeton, Clemson, Syracuse
Last Four In: Virginia, Nebraska, Colorado, Richmond
First Four Out: Mississippi State, South Dakota State, Stanford, Arizona State
Next Four Out: Utah, James Madison, Texas A&M, BYU
The bubble is still very much dominated by the ACC and Big 12. Virginia and Clemson are going to face off in Duluth, Georgia, at 11 a.m. ET on Thursday. The winner between the Cavaliers and Tigers is going to feel much better heading into Selection Sunday.
At the SEC Tournament, Mississippi State needs to win at least one game to get back on the right side of the bubble. In the Big Ten Tournament, Nebraska would do itself a favor by picking up at least one win to solidify its position. In the Atlantic-10, Richmond could pad its resume by picking up some impressive wins too.
Barring a deep run in the Big 12 Tournament, Arizona State’s fate is likely sealed with an 0-5 record in Quad 1 games and a NET ranking that’s behind seven mid-major teams.
