Despite winning the 2025 national championship, Indiana football faces a significant rebuild after losing numerous star players to the NFL.
Las Vegas sportsbooks have surprisingly installed Indiana as the favorite to win the 2026 national title.
Coach Curt Cignetti must now motivate a new roster that has a target on its back, a different challenge than leading an underdog team.
Nevada’s gross gaming revenue hit a record $15.6 billion in 2024, and another record year is expected when the 2025 numbers are released.
The fourth straight year of record-breaking revenue for an industry whose sole purpose is to get it right way more often than wrong.
And even Vegas can’t figure out Indiana.
Multiple Nevada books have installed Indiana as the team to beat in 2026, which may be Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti’s biggest trick yet. The billion dollar industry, with sharps who routinely nail point and win totals to the number, have decided to simply ride with Cignetti despite Indiana’s heavy rebuild.
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Not a bad idea, but yet another massive overlook of the unthinkable that transpired in Bloomington, Ind., over the past two years.
“There’s no mystery,” Cignetti said two days before the Hoosiers beat Miami in the College Football Playoff national championship game. “Players win games.”
Yeah, well, some in Vegas aren’t having any of it despite a roster overhaul that clearly underscores players win games. Specifically, players who have moved on to the NFL.
All-American quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.
Running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black, both 1,000-yard rushers.
Wide receivers Elijah Surratt and Omar Cooper Jr., who combined for 134 catches and 28 touchdowns.
Center Pat Coogan, an All-American and Rose Bowl Offensive Player of Game.
Linebacker Aiden Fisher and cornerback DeAngelo Ponds, both All-Americans.
Disruptive edge (and All-American) Stephen Daley, who missed the national championship game with an injury.
These aren’t throwaway, replaceable players. They’re the foundation of Cignetti’s buildout, the undisputed reason Indiana this season rolled everything in its path.
I don’t care what Indiana accomplished in the transfer portal over the past month — and it was an impressive haul — it can’t come close to replicating what the Hoosiers lost. It can’t, in any way, replace the chemistry and emotional edge from the 2025 team.
Indiana has gone from the cute story that didn’t deserve to be in the CFP in 2024, to the giant killer in 2025, to the favorite to win it all in 2026. That remarkable program jump doesn’t happen without a rare combination of motivation, character and humility — to say nothing of elite talent.
The whole “we’re not five-stars” mantra is gone now, replaced by the only hardware that matters. The push, the drive to be better than everyone on every Saturday, must now be rebuilt and reengaged.
The greatest accomplishment of Nick Saban at Alabama wasn’t necessarily the six national titles. It was convincing players even though they reached the mountaintop a year ago, there’s even better gold up there this time around. Now go get it.
Cignetti and his staff have proven they can evaluate and develop. They know the game, and they’re elite teachers. The next step: Can they motivate with the target on their back?
Truth be told, Indiana could’ve made a deep run in the 2024 CFP if it had a more accomplished quarterback. Kurtis Rourke played well, but he wasn’t a difference-maker.
Now Cignetti has put the team in the hands of TCU transfer Josh Hoover, a talented thrower who’s more like Rourke than Mendoza. More to the point, he’s not walking into a ready-made championship contender like Mendoza saw in January of 2025.
Mendoza was recruited heavily by Georgia and Miami, and said he chose Indiana because of Cignetti — and because of the unique team dynamic. He wanted to play for a team that was hungry and motivated, and played for each other.
As corny and contrived as that may sound to those on the outside, it’s the lifeblood of teams on the inside. It’s not carried over from season to season, and not a switch you flip.
It’s real and tangible, and the ability to consistently find it comes after years of not only winning big games, but finding ways to win games you should lose. That’s how championships are consistently won.
Indiana had no business beating Penn State in November, and could’ve easily lost to Miami in the national championship game. But the talent on the field — and the will and want to find a way — wouldn’t wilt in the moment.
That’s how one player blocks a punt in the national championship game while in punt safe. How one player ends the championship game by knowing the coverage, and knowing he had help over the top, and making a play on a deep throw.
It’s a goal line stand against Ohio State, and a throw to the back of the end zone against Penn State.
It’s a fourth-down quarterback draw for a touchdown, a run for the ages while getting pinballed and punished by a defense desperate to make a stop.
And Vegas is betting on Cignetti.
Not a bad idea, but a lot of work to be done.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
