Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season represented the penultimate chance for the league’s top MVP candidates to show why they are deserving of the award.
What about Matthew Stafford? The Rams signal-caller endured one of his worst games of the season in Los Angeles’ 27-24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
Stafford entered Week 17 holding a slight lead in the NFL’s MVP race over Maye. Was the 37-year-old’s rocky outing enough to shift the race in favor of the second-year quarterback?
Here’s a look at the NFL MVP odds as the league calendar rolls on into Week 18.
NFL MVP odds: Week 18
Here’s a look at where Maye and Stafford rank in the NFL MVP award odds after 17 weeks of action, according to BetMGM:
1. QB Drake Maye, New England Patriots (-750)
Stafford was ahead of Maye in the NFL MVP race entering Week 17. Maye flipped the script on the veteran quarterback by putting together one of the best performances of his career to date.
Maye completed 19 of 21 passes for 256 yards and a career-high five touchdowns against the Jets. He posted a 157 passer rating and a 99.8 QBR, which was the highest-ever posted by a quarterback since the metric was created in 2006.
Maye leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.2%), yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (112.9). He has thrown for 4,203 yards, 30 touchdowns and just eight interceptions while adding 409 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
Maye will also get credit for elevating a solid-but-unspectacular Patriots squad to be a contender in the AFC. New England clinched the AFC East title in Week 17 – something the team hasn’t done since Tom Brady’s final season with it in 2019 – thanks in no small part to Maye’s excellent performance.
2. QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (+450)
Stafford has been the MVP frontrunner for a good chunk of the 2025 NFL season. However, a rocky performance against the Falcons in Week 17 could prove costly for the 37-year-old as he looks to take home the award for the first time.
Stafford completed 22 of 38 passes for 269 yards, two touchdowns and a season-worst three interceptions against the Falcons. The two first-half picks proved costly, as one was returned for a touchdown while the other came one play before Bijan Robinson scored on a 93-yard scamper.
Stafford was without several starting offensive linemen for Monday’s game, including left tackle Alaric Jackson. He was sacked three times, tying a season high, while facing a lot of pressure that appeared to bother him.
While that game may leave a bad taste in the mouths of voters, Stafford has still completed 65.2% of his passes for 4,448 yards, a league-high 42 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. His 108.8 passer rating ranks second-best in the NFL behind Maye, while Stafford’s 8.0 yards per attempt ranks top-five league-wide, illustrating the narrow gap between the two quarterbacks.
But if recency bias plays any role in the MVP debate, as the odds shift indicate, Maye will end up having the edge over Stafford entering the season’s final week.
