Michigan has better playoff chance than Texas, based on better record.
Michigan beating Ohio State would become unsettling news for Alabama.
One of Texas’ problems: Scheduling Ohio State.
How much is a win against an undefeated team worth?
That’s what Michigan and Texas must be asking after clocking in at Nos. 15 and 16 in the newest College Football Playoff rankings.
To have realistic hope of an at-large bid, a team needs to be tucked inside the top 10 of the final rankings.
I’ve got bad news for No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Utah and No. 14 Vanderbilt: A rivalry week win won’t be enough for those teams. They’ll also need help from teams ahead of them losing, to climb inside the top 10. Vanderbilt beating Tennessee wouldn’t provide the necessary catapult to spring it inside the top 10, if chalk holds up ahead. Sorry, ‘Dores.
Same for Miami and Utah.
But, Michigan and Texas have a supersized springboard positioned between them and Selection Sunday.
So, I ask again, how much is a win against an undefeated team worth?
With this particular committee, perhaps not worth as much as a “good loss.”
I’m kidding. Or, maybe I’m not. This committee loves ‘good losses.’
But, seriously, a marquee win against an undefeated rival in the final stroll down the catwalk must be worth something.
Enough to climb five or six spots? Maybe.
Miami isn’t passing Notre Dame. It’s just not.
This committee values eye test and avoidance of bad losses more than it cherishes good wins. That’s why No. 9 Notre Dame is ranked three spots ahead of Miami.
The Hurricanes have a more impressive top win than Notre Dame. They beat Notre Dame.
But, the Irish have better losses than Miami, in part because they lost to Miami. Confused yet?
Also, the Irish aced the eye test while beating up on several bad teams, so they’ve become a committee darling. If only Notre Dame could load up the playoff bracket with the likes of Purdue, Arkansas, Boston College, Syracuse and Stanford, it would roll to the national championship.
Enough about Notre Dame-Miami, though. This committee has spoken. Miami needs help. Notre Dame just needs to beat Stanford.
Texas has a record problem. Michigan doesn’t
Perhaps no team has more potential to inject bracket chaos than Michigan. The Wolverines (9-2) haven’t lost to a bad team, so all good on that front. Would beating Ohio State be enough to surpass Alabama and take over the No. 10 spot?
‘I can’t predict that,” CFP committee chairman Hunter Yurachek said.
Translation: It’s possible. Alabama has that ugly Week 1 loss to Florida State anchoring its resume. You haven’t forgotten this committee’s feelings about bad losses already, have you?
A Michigan upset of Ohio State smells like rotten fish for the Tide.
Texas is a different kettle of fish, foremost because of its 8-3 record.
You and I know if Texas had scheduled Boston College in Week 1 instead of playing a road game against Ohio State, this committee would look at the Longhorns differently. The committee would see two losses next to Texas’ name instead of three, and never mind that Boston College stinks.
Beating Boston College by 28 points instead of losing to the defending national champions by seven wouldn’t make Texas a better team, but it would make for a better record. Record matters to the committee, just as it did last season.
Peep the rankings. The three undefeated teams begin the roll call. Then come four one-loss teams, and then come the two-loss teams.
No. 11 Brigham Young (10-1) is the only exception to the record rule within the top 15. It’s ranked behind three two-loss teams.
We can debate fancy metrics ‘til the cows come home, but record remains the metric that matters most to the committee. No three-loss team is ranked inside the top 15, and no three-loss team earned an at-large bid to the party last season.
So, Texas’ record is a problem, even if it topples the Aggies.
Also, unlike Michigan, the Longhorns lost to a bad team. They fell to Florida in The Swamp. The Gators are now 3-8. That’s a lead weight tied to Bevo’s horns.
It also stings Texas that its loss to Georgia came by a 35-10 margin. Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian supplied the harsh analysis after that loss, calling his team’s fourth-quarter performance “a disaster.’
The committee hasn’t forgotten that fourth quarter.
The rules of playoff qualification:
Don’t lose.
If you must lose, don’t lose to a bad team.
If you must lose to a good team, don’t lose by much.
Bonus points for wearing shiny gold helmets.
Michigan has potential to inject chaos into CFP rankings top 10
Add it up, and Michigan has more potential to steal a bid at 10-2 than Texas would have at 9-3.
Of course, there’s still the matter of beating Ohio State.
Is Ryan Day finally ready to have some fun against The Team Up North?
“Fun is kicking ass,” Day said, “and that’s what we want to do on Saturday. We’re preparing to do that.”
Do that, and it would save this committee from having to answer how much a win against the undefeated, No. 1-ranked team is worth.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
