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How will CFP rankings look? Our projection for the top 12

November 25, 2025
in Sports
How will CFP rankings look? Our projection for the top 12
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The top College Football Playoff rankings are expected to remain largely unchanged after a quiet weekend.
A potential debate exists for the No. 6 spot between Mississippi and Oregon following the Ducks’ win over USC.
Thanksgiving weekend features several high-stakes rivalry games that will finalize conference championship matchups.

After a quiet and drama-free weekend involving the biggest players in the College Football Playoff mix, the only real debate in the fourth playoff rankings comes between Mississippi and Oregon.

Despite dealing with injuries, Oregon looked the part of a championship contender in beating Southern California. That win might be enough to lift the Ducks one spot to No. 6 in Tuesday night’s rankings.

While the status quo is more likely, swapping spots with the Rebels would provide a glimpse into where the selection committee will land in the discussions over whether the Big Ten or SEC champion deserves to be the bracket’s top seed.

Otherwise, an uneventful Saturday sets the stage for a winner-take-all Thanksgiving weekend that will determine conference championship game matchups.

Here’s how the top 12 of this week’s playoff rankings will look:

1. Ohio State (11-0)

Best win: vs. Texas (14-7), Aug. 30.

Up next: at No. 15 Michigan, Saturday.

The Buckeyes are built on both sides of the ball to snap a four-game losing streak in the rivalry to Michigan. Another loss would be terrible but also not the worst thing: Ohio State would get an extra week off and would very likely still finish in the top four to earn a bye through the opening round.

2. Indiana (11-0)

Best win: at Oregon (30-20), Oct. 11.

Up next: at Purdue, Friday.

Indiana is about a four-touchdown favorite against overmatched Purdue. A win would set a program record for victories in a season.

3. Texas A&M (11-0)

Best win: at Notre Dame (41-40), Sept. 13.

Up next: at No. 16 Texas, Friday.

The Aggies would miss the SEC championship game with a loss at Texas should Alabama beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl, setting up a rematch between the Tide and Georgia.

4. Georgia (10-1)

Best win: vs. Mississippi (43-35), Oct. 18.

Up next: vs. No. 19 Georgia Tech, Saturday.

While the Yellow Jackets are reeling from two bad losses that will likely keep them out of the ACC title game, a rivalry win could give Georgia the résumé to finish in the top four even without reaching the SEC championship game.

5. Texas Tech (10-1)

Best win: vs. Brigham Young (29-7), Nov. 8.

Up next: at West Virginia, Saturday.

Don’t look for Tech to get tripped up in Morgantown. In the case of a massive upset, the Red Raiders will transition into must-win mode in the Big 12 championship game, which looks like a rematch against BYU.

6. Mississippi (10-1)

Best win: at Oklahoma (34-26), Oct. 25.

Up next: at Mississippi State, Friday.

The Egg Bowl doubles as the season finale and possibly the final game for Lane Kiffin, who is expected to announce this weekend whether he plans to stay in Oxford or head off to another SEC locale. Unfortunately, the drama over his decision continues to overshadow the program’s best season in about 60 years.

7. Oregon (10-1)

Best win: vs. Southern California (42-27), Nov. 22.

Up next: at Washington, Saturday.

Look for the Ducks to potentially gain ground in the penultimate rankings. In addition to Oregon adding a solid road win against Washington, the committee might be inclined to drop the Rebels in the rankings should Kiffin leave for another job shortly after the Egg Bowl.

8. Oklahoma (9-2)

Best win: at Alabama (23-21), Nov. 15.

Up next: vs. LSU, Saturday.

One more win will lock Oklahoma into an at-large berth. The Sooners should be able to handle an LSU offense that has scored just 52 points since the start of the second half against A&M on Oct. 25.

9. Notre Dame (9-2)

Best win: vs. Southern California (34-24), Oct. 18.

Up next: at Stanford, Saturday.

Notre Dame demolished Syracuse and should do the same against Stanford to reach the playoff for a second year in a row. It will be interesting to see how much the Irish lean on running back Jeremiyah Love given the need to balance his workload with the chance at being a Heisman Trophy finalist.

10. Alabama (9-2)

Best win: at Georgia (24-21), Sept. 27.

Up next: at Auburn, Saturday.

Georgia will be rooting for Auburn. A&M might be, too. BYU, Miami, Vanderbilt and Utah will definitely be rooting against the Crimson Tide. An Alabama loss is the one result that could bring chaos and controversy to the final rankings.

11. Brigham Young

Best win: vs. Utah (24-21), Oct. 18.

Up next: vs. Central Florida.

Look for the Cougars to roll over UCF and bring just one loss into the rematch with Texas Tech. BYU would have an at-large case with a second loss but would need to play close and hope for an upset or two in the rest of the Power Four.

12. Miami

Best win: vs. Notre Dame (27-24), Aug. 31.

Up next: at No. 24 Pittsburgh.

Miami will have a case for moving up one spot and replacing Utah after the Utes gave up a quarter mile of rushing yards in a dramatic win against Kansas State. The Hurricanes have regained their composure after a wobbly midseason lull and are inching closer to Notre Dame.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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