The upcoming Bills-Chiefs game marks the 10th meeting between quarterbacks Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes since 2020.
While the Bills have won the last four regular-season matchups, the Chiefs have defeated them in four straight postseason games.
For the first time in years, neither Buffalo nor Kansas City is leading their respective division heading into the matchup.
Here we go again. Bills. Chiefs. Highmark Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen (and their respective teams) are about to face off for the 10th time since 2020 and if history is any indication, it may be merely a midseason tease for another clash in the AFC playoffs.
If the AFC showdown on tap for Sunday were a movie, it would be “Groundhog Day.”
In the classic comedy, the weatherman portrayed by Bill Murray kept reliving the same day over and over with “Punxsutawney Phil” in the mix. In this NFL adaptation, the Bills have had Kansas City’s number in the regular-season games with four consecutive wins … only to suffer four straight postseason setbacks against the Chiefs.
So, now what?
‘We know it’s going to take our best football,” Mahomes told reporters in Kansas City this week. “I think that’s the biggest thing I’ve learned from this rivalry, is that it’s going to be one play here or there that’s going to change the outcome.”
Last year’s November match, when Mahomes threw two picks, was settled with a stunning, 26-yard TD run in crunch time by Allen. Then the AFC title game in January came down to a dropped pass on fourth down by Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid inside the final two minutes, which allowed Kansas City to preserve a 32-29 verdict. Before that, a fourth-down sneak by Allen sparked controversy about whether officials properly spotted the football. Kansas City converted the turnover on downs into the eventual game-winning TD drive.
Pivotal plays aside, this year’s script has a rather fresh plot twist that suggests it isn’t so automatic that these teams see each other again in January. As strange as it sounds, neither the Chiefs nor the Bills are in first place. Never mind that Kansas City (5-3) has won nine A-West titles in a row and Buffalo (5-2) has claimed five straight AFC East crowns. They are chasing the division-leading Broncos and Patriots, respectively, meaning there’s more at stake than the typical playoff-seeding ramifications.
If either of these teams are to overtake the Colts (7-1) for the top slot in the AFC playoff race, it will require getting on quite the roll.
Can Bills’ elite run game offset their passing deficiencies?
But first things first. While the Chiefs have found a stride since starting 0-2 and with Mahomes finally supported by his full complement of receivers – when Rashee Rice returned from his six-game NFL suspension two weeks ago, it marked the first time that he, “Hollywood” Brown and Xavier Worthy were all in the lineup at the same time – it strikes me as even more of a measuring stick contest for the Bills, listed as two-point underdogs.
If this is the year that Buffalo finally breaks through and makes it to the Super Bowl, there’s no better time than now to serve notice against the nemesis that has advanced to seven consecutive AFC Championship Games.
The Bills can’t match Kansas City’s explosive play potential like they used to, when Allen had since-departed Stephon Diggs among his weapons. The spotty receiver production is why, as the NFL trade deadline looms Tuesday, the Bills are targeted as a potential landing spot for Saints receiver Chris Olave. In the meantime, they are hardly getting the best bang for the buck from Allen, who is the NFL’s reigning MVP and in March signed that massive contract extension (6 years, $330 million), but no longer resembles one of the league’s best deep-ball throwers – at least when it comes to results.
Buffalo’s running game, though, is more potent than it has ever been under coach Sean McDermott. The Bills, with a top-10 rushing attack for each season since 2021, have the NFL’s top-ranked running game behind James Cook and the multi-dimensional Allen. It has helped Buffalo lead the league in time of possession (33:15), which could be a key in keeping Mahomes on the sideline, but only goes so far in covering for passing game woes.
“We have to be able to throw the football, or else you’re going to be sitting on a one-dimensional style of offense,” McDermott said. “You’ve got to be able to do both effectively in order to play at a high level like we need to.”
That challenge, even for a team averaging 29.6 points per game, will be tested by a defense allowing the second-fewest points in the NFL (16.4 per game).
Bills have stepped off this curb before. Will they do it again?
Clearly, complementary football is the ticket. Kansas City has averaged 30.8 points over the past five games, while Buffalo’s injury-riddled defense has had a few red flags, including the 238-yard game (170 rushing) from Bijan Robinson in the Week 6 loss at Atlanta and the 238 rushing yards allowed to Baltimore in Week 1. Furthermore, star defensive tackle Ed Oliver is out again, this time with torn biceps that will require surgery and sideline him indefinitely. And a secondary that has had one issue after another this season is about the face its stiffest test yet.
The Bills, who rolled over Carolina last weekend to snap a two-game losing streak, would make an even stronger statement by handling their dear friends from Kansas City.
Or, are they destined to see their shadow?
“You try not to make a game bigger than it is,” Bills safety Jordan Poyer maintained. “It’s a football game. We’re going to wake up in the morning, get ready to play, we’re going to play the game. The clock’s going to hit zero. One team’s going to win, one team’s going to lose and you’re going to get back on your process next week. So, you never want to make a game bigger than it is.”
Still, having stepped off this curb before, it’s big enough to avoid a Ned Ryerson moment.
Contact Jarrett Bell at jbell@usatoday.com or follow on X: @JarrettBell
