Saquon Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards in 2024, his first season with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Historically, running backs see a significant drop in production the year after rushing for 2,000 yards.
Barkley’s projected stats for 2025 are 308 carries, 1,694 rushing yards, and 10 touchdowns.
Saquon Barkley became the ninth 2,000-yard rusher during his first season with the Philadelphia Eagles. Can he do it again in 2025?
On the surface, Barkley would look like a candidate to become the NFL’s first two-time, 2,000-yard rusher. The 28-year-old is in his prime and plays for one of the best and most run-heavy offenses in the NFL.
But Barkley also handled a major workload in 2024. He handled 482 touches, including the playoffs, and it isn’t clear whether that high volume of usage will impact him as he enters the 2025 NFL season.
Add in that no running back has even topped 1,500 rushing yards in the year following a 2,000-yard campaign and it’s hard to guarantee Barkley will be able to reach historic heights again in 2025.
How well will Barkley do in his second season with the Eagles? Here’s a look at a stat projection for his season and why he could still make history even if he doesn’t reach 2,000 yards rushing in 2025.
NFL 2,000-yard rushers
The NFL has seen nine players record 2,000 rushing yards in a single season during its history. They are as follows:
1973: O.J. Simpson, Bills – 2,003
1984: Eric Dickerson, Rams – 2,105
1997: Barry Sanders, Lions – 2,053
1998: Terrell Davis, Broncos – 2,008
2003: Jamal Lewis, Ravens – 2,056
2009: Chris Johnson, Titans – 2,006
2012: Adrian Peterson, Vikings – 2,097
2020: Derrick Henry, Titans – 2,027
2025: Saquon Barkley, Eagles – 2,005
How do NFL running backs fare after 2,000-yard seasons?
Typically, running backs see a noticeable decline in production in the season following their 2,000-yard campaigns. It isn’t necessarily because they lack opportunities.
The NFL’s previous eight 2,000-yard rushers averaged just 2.5 fewer carries per game in the season following their 2,000-yard campaign. However, they experienced an average decline of 41.2 rushing yards per game despite the relatively similar opportunities.
The reason for the precipitous step-back? No NFL running back has averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry in the season following their 2,000-yard campaign. As a group, they have averaged 4.3 yards per carry; by comparison, the eight averaged a collective 5.6 yards per carry during their 2,000-yard seasons, with Davis’ 5.1 yards per carry in 1998 serving as the lowest average.
Below is a look at the average, per-game stats of running backs during their 2,000-yard seasons:
Carries: 23.1
Rushing yards: 129.9
Rushing TDs: 0.9
Yards per carry: 5.6
And here is a look at the per-game stats in the season following:
Carries: 20.6
Rushing yards: 88.7
Rushing TDs: 0.6
Yards per carry: 4.5
Even so, only two of the eight running backs have failed to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in the campaign following their 2,000-yard season. Both players, Davis and Henry, were impacted by injuries that limited them to four and eight games respectively.
So, while 2,000-yard rushers typically see a drop-off, they still usually remain high-caliber starting running backs.
Who has the most rushing yards after a 2,000-yard season?
Barry Sanders owns the record for the most single-season rushing yards recorded immediately following a 2,000-yard season. Sanders ran for 1,491 yards during the 1999 season, which turned out to be his final NFL season.
Sanders was also the lone running back to record an increase in carries in the year following his 2,000-yard season. He ran the ball 335 times in 1998 before seeing that number increase to 343 in his final season.
Saquon Barkley stat projection 2025
Carries: 308
Rushing yards: 1,694
Rushing TDs: 10
Yards per carry: 5.5
Could Barkley become the first back to record multiple 2,000-yard seasons? That may prove difficult. That said, a path exists for Barkley to surpass Sanders’ record for a 2,000-yard season follow-up.
Barkley averaged a career-high 5.8 yards per carry last season, and much of that was buoyed by his elite offensive line. His blockers helped him to rack up an average of 3.8 yards before contact per run; Jahmyr Gibbs (3.3) and Derrick Henry (3.1) were the only other running backs league-wide to average better than 3 yards before contact per carry.
Philadelphia is returning four of its five starting offensive linemen from last season, with the lone exception being right guard Mekhi Becton, who signed with the Los Angeles Chargers. So long as 2023 third-round pick Tyler Steen proves to be a capable replacement, the blocking in front of Barkley should remain strong.
If that’s the case, Barkley will have more big-play potential than most backs around the NFL thanks to his blazing speed. Barkley led the league in runs of 40-plus yards (7) and recorded four of the 14 fastest speeds by a ball-carrier during the 2024 NFL season. His top speed of 21.93 mph was good for fourth-best in the league behind only Dallas Cowboys receiver KaVontae Turpin (22.36), Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (22.15) and Gibbs (22.03).
If Barkley can continue to generate explosive plays, that will significantly boost his chances of once again topping the league’s rushing leaderboard.
Finally, it’s worth noting Barkley sat out the Eagles’ Week 18 game because the team had already clinched the NFC East and wasn’t in the running for the conference’s No. 1 seed. If he plays all 17 games in 2025, that would give him an extra contest to rack up yardage, which could give him a boost as he looks to repeat his 2,000-yard feat.
Still, while there are many reasons to be bullish on Barkley’s potential, it’s also worth noting he handled 482 total touches last season, including the playoffs. The Eagles may want to slightly limit his touches to avoid any significant fatigue or wear-and-tear, so he shouldn’t be expected to exceed his career-high carry total (345) from the previous season.
That slight regression should keep Barkley from going over 2,000 yards again, but Eagles fans can still expect him to be among the best running backs in the NFL.
